CEO/TFTF Score ↔ Returns Correlation
Universe: 10 semiconductor companies | Returns as of: 2026-02-14 | Generated: 2026-03-03 17:39 UTC
N=10 caveat: With only 10 companies, correlations require large effect sizes (|r| > 0.5)
to be meaningful. This is hypothesis generation — not statistical proof. Treat as signal for where
to dig deeper, not as trading signals.
Company Scores & Returns
| Company | Ticker | TFTF | Is TFTF? |
CEO Rating | CEO | trail 30d excess | trail 90d excess | trail 180d excess | trail 365d excess |
| Lasertec |
6920.T |
8.8 |
YES |
exceptional |
Osamu Okabayashi |
— | +48.3% | +84.8% | -12.1% |
| SiTime |
SITM |
8.3 |
YES |
exceptional |
Rajesh Vashist |
+12.0% | +35.0% | +94.4% | +165.1% |
| Lattice Semiconductor |
LSCC |
8.0 |
YES |
exceptional |
Ford Tamer |
+24.0% | +33.5% | +96.2% | +84.7% |
| indie Semiconductor |
INDI |
7.2 |
YES |
strong |
Donald McClymont |
+2.8% | -16.1% | +18.1% | -29.6% |
| MACOM Technology Solutions |
MTSI |
7.0 |
no |
exceptional |
Stephen G. Daly |
+40.4% | +89.9% | +83.1% | +103.7% |
| Silicon Laboratories |
SLAB |
7.0 |
no |
strong |
Matt Johnson |
+56.0% | +54.1% | +50.5% | +52.6% |
| ROHM Semiconductor |
6963.T |
6.8 |
no |
strong |
Isao Matsumoto |
— | +4.4% | +40.5% | +15.3% |
| Socionext |
6526.T |
6.8 |
no |
strong |
Masahiro Koezuka |
— | -28.2% | -19.0% | -56.4% |
| Allegro MicroSystems |
ALGM |
6.7 |
no |
strong |
Vineet Nargolwala |
+55.0% | +49.5% | +46.2% | +48.8% |
| Semtech |
SMTC |
5.8 |
no |
strong |
Hong Q. Hou |
+16.5% | +21.6% | +129.4% | +78.9% |
Rank Correlations (Spearman ρ)
* p < 0.10 | ** p < 0.05 | Positive ρ = higher score → higher excess return
| Horizon | Score | ρ | p-value | Pearson r | N |
|---|
| trail 30d |
tftf score |
-0.432 |
0.3325 |
-0.244 |
7 |
| trail 30d |
founder rating num |
-0.144 |
0.7575 |
-0.179 |
7 |
| trail 30d |
velocity |
-0.412 |
0.3588 |
-0.416 |
7 |
| trail 30d |
compounding |
+0.144 |
0.7575 |
+0.050 |
7 |
| trail 30d |
moat depth |
+0.279 |
0.5447 |
+0.253 |
7 |
| trail 30d |
talent magnetism |
-0.459 |
0.3003 |
-0.387 |
7 |
| trail 30d |
capital efficiency |
+0.150 |
0.7487 |
+0.129 |
7 |
| trail 30d |
founder intensity |
-0.624 |
0.1342 |
-0.697 |
7 |
| trail 90d |
tftf score |
+0.171 |
0.6372 |
+0.203 |
10 |
| trail 90d |
founder rating num |
+0.426 |
0.2191 |
+0.549 |
10 |
| trail 90d |
velocity |
+0.020 |
0.9570 |
+0.061 |
10 |
| trail 90d |
compounding |
-0.060 |
0.8686 |
-0.042 |
10 |
| trail 90d |
moat depth |
+0.597 * |
0.0687 |
+0.517 |
10 |
| trail 90d |
talent magnetism |
+0.057 |
0.8753 |
-0.011 |
10 |
| trail 90d |
capital efficiency |
+0.202 |
0.5756 |
+0.291 |
10 |
| trail 90d |
founder intensity |
+0.113 |
0.7553 |
-0.012 |
10 |
| trail 180d |
tftf score |
+0.220 |
0.5423 |
+0.150 |
10 |
| trail 180d |
founder rating num |
+0.569 * |
0.0864 |
+0.538 |
10 |
| trail 180d |
velocity |
+0.177 |
0.6247 |
+0.154 |
10 |
| trail 180d |
compounding |
+0.060 |
0.8686 |
-0.018 |
10 |
| trail 180d |
moat depth |
+0.361 |
0.3060 |
+0.367 |
10 |
| trail 180d |
talent magnetism |
+0.006 |
0.9861 |
-0.061 |
10 |
| trail 180d |
capital efficiency |
+0.227 |
0.5276 |
+0.112 |
10 |
| trail 180d |
founder intensity |
+0.214 |
0.5528 |
+0.145 |
10 |
| trail 365d |
tftf score |
+0.152 |
0.6742 |
+0.117 |
10 |
| trail 365d |
founder rating num |
+0.569 * |
0.0864 |
+0.515 |
10 |
| trail 365d |
velocity |
+0.098 |
0.7869 |
+0.148 |
10 |
| trail 365d |
compounding |
-0.161 |
0.6572 |
-0.193 |
10 |
| trail 365d |
moat depth |
+0.387 |
0.2695 |
+0.259 |
10 |
| trail 365d |
talent magnetism |
-0.038 |
0.9167 |
-0.016 |
10 |
| trail 365d |
capital efficiency |
+0.088 |
0.8081 |
+0.047 |
10 |
| trail 365d |
founder intensity |
+0.208 |
0.5648 |
+0.155 |
10 |
Top vs Bottom Half (Median Split)
| Score | Horizon | Top mean | Bottom mean | Spread | M-W p |
|---|
| tftf score |
trail 30d |
+27.0% |
+35.7% |
-8.7% |
0.7143 |
| tftf score |
trail 90d |
+40.8% |
+11.8% |
+29.0% |
0.1286 |
| tftf score |
trail 180d |
+71.2% |
+49.3% |
+21.9% |
0.2381 |
| tftf score |
trail 365d |
+60.7% |
+21.6% |
+39.1% |
0.1762 |
TFTF Dimension Rankings by Predictive Power
Dimensions ranked by |Spearman ρ| with excess returns
| Horizon | Rank | Dimension | ρ | p-value |
|---|
| trail 30d |
1 |
founder intensity |
-0.624 |
0.1342 |
| trail 30d |
2 |
talent magnetism |
-0.459 |
0.3003 |
| trail 30d |
3 |
velocity |
-0.412 |
0.3588 |
| trail 30d |
4 |
moat depth |
+0.279 |
0.5447 |
| trail 30d |
5 |
capital efficiency |
+0.150 |
0.7487 |
| trail 30d |
6 |
compounding |
+0.144 |
0.7575 |
| trail 90d |
1 |
moat depth |
+0.597 |
0.0687 |
| trail 90d |
2 |
capital efficiency |
+0.202 |
0.5756 |
| trail 90d |
3 |
founder intensity |
+0.113 |
0.7553 |
| trail 90d |
4 |
compounding |
-0.060 |
0.8686 |
| trail 90d |
5 |
talent magnetism |
+0.057 |
0.8753 |
| trail 90d |
6 |
velocity |
+0.020 |
0.9570 |
| trail 180d |
1 |
moat depth |
+0.361 |
0.3060 |
| trail 180d |
2 |
capital efficiency |
+0.227 |
0.5276 |
| trail 180d |
3 |
founder intensity |
+0.214 |
0.5528 |
| trail 180d |
4 |
velocity |
+0.177 |
0.6247 |
| trail 180d |
5 |
compounding |
+0.060 |
0.8686 |
| trail 180d |
6 |
talent magnetism |
+0.006 |
0.9861 |
| trail 365d |
1 |
moat depth |
+0.387 |
0.2695 |
| trail 365d |
2 |
founder intensity |
+0.208 |
0.5648 |
| trail 365d |
3 |
compounding |
-0.161 |
0.6572 |
| trail 365d |
4 |
velocity |
+0.098 |
0.7869 |
| trail 365d |
5 |
capital efficiency |
+0.088 |
0.8081 |
| trail 365d |
6 |
talent magnetism |
-0.038 |
0.9167 |
Methodology
- Returns: Finnhub daily candles, excess vs SPY benchmark
- Correlation: Spearman rank (robust to outliers, appropriate for ordinal scores)
- Group test: Mann-Whitney U (non-parametric, 1-sided: top > bottom)
- Horizons: Forward returns from assessment date in trading days
- Japan tickers: .T suffix (TSE), returns in local currency