# Related Work: Alternative Data for Financial Trend Tracking *What do people track beyond Google Trends for investment signals?* Compiled 2026-03-24 via web search (automated pipeline had Gemini subscription failures). --- ## Build Priority for a Small Team **Tier 1 — Free/cheap, high signal, build now:** | Signal | Cost | DIY Feasibility | Why | |------------------------|------------|-----------------|--------------------------------------------------| | Earnings call NLP | Free | HIGH | FinBERT + free transcripts; sentiment delta predicts next-day returns | | Insider trading | Free | HIGH | OpenInsider + edgartools; cluster buying is well-documented bullish signal | | Search trends | Free-$40/mo | HIGH | Google Trends + Glimpse; Preis et al. showed 310% outperformance over 7yr | | SEC filing NLP | Free | HIGH | edgartools + FinBERT on 10-K risk factors; language changes precede price | | Social sentiment | Free | HIGH | Reddit/StockTwits via PRAW + FinBERT; volume matters more than sentiment score | | Gov't data pipelines | Free | HIGH | FRED/BLS/EIA — authoritative, API-accessible, massive coverage | **Tier 2 — Modest investment ($30-$500/mo):** | Signal | Cost | DIY Feasibility | Why | |------------------------|------------|-----------------|--------------------------------------------------| | Options flow | $30/mo | MEDIUM | Unusual Whales; UOA front-runs earnings/M&A | | Patent filing trends | Free | MEDIUM | PatentsView API; filing spikes signal 12-18mo before launches | | AIS shipping data | Free | MEDIUM | AISHub; requires engineering but unique macro signal | **Tier 3 — Evaluate commercial ($10K+/yr):** | Signal | Cost | DIY Feasibility | Why | |------------------------|------------|-----------------|--------------------------------------------------| | Web/app traffic | $10K+/yr | LOW | SimilarWeb/Apptopia; direct revenue proxy for digital companies | | Job posting data | $25K+/yr | MEDIUM | Revelio Labs/LinkUp; hiring velocity is leading indicator | | Foot traffic | Enterprise | LOW | Placer.ai; direct retail revenue proxy | **Tier 4 — Institutional only ($50K+/yr):** | Signal | Cost | Why | |------------------------|------------|--------------------------------------------------| | Transaction data | $50-500K/yr | Bloomberg Second Measure, Facteus — most direct revenue signal | | Satellite analytics | $100K+/yr | Orbital Insight, SpaceKnow — unique, uncorrelated | | Enterprise ESG | Enterprise | MSCI, Sustainalytics — but low inter-provider agreement | --- ## Detailed Categories ### 1. Search Trends (current gtracker focus) Google Trends is validated but noisy. Key enhancements: | Tool | What it adds over raw GT | Cost | |--------------------|----------------------------------------------------------|---------------| | **Glimpse** | Absolute volumes, 12-month forecasts (87% accuracy) | Free extension + paid | | **Exploding Topics** | AI-curated emerging trends before mainstream | $39-$249/mo | | **SparkToro** | Audience research: what people read/follow/search | Free (20/mo) | **Academic validation:** - Preis et al. (2013, Nature): GT strategy outperformed market by 310% over 7 years - Bijl et al. (2016): Search volume predicts individual stock returns - Systematic review of 56 articles on GSVI + investor attention (Springer 2023) ### 2. Social Media Sentiment Volume of mentions often matters more than sentiment scores. | Provider | Type | Access | |-----------------------|---------------------|----------------| | **FinBERT** | BERT fine-tuned on financial text | Free (HuggingFace) | | **StockTwits** | Bull/bear-tagged stock microblogging | Free feed | | **PRAW** | Reddit API (r/WallStreetBets) | Free | | **Quiver Quantitative** | Reddit + Congress trades + lobbying | Free tier | | **RavenPack** | Enterprise NLP on news + social | Enterprise | **Key finding:** Reddit WSB back-tests showed 70-84% outperformance in bull markets. Simpler metrics (comment volume) often beat sophisticated NLP. ### 3. Web Traffic / App Data Direct revenue proxy for digital companies, but expensive. | Provider | Coverage | Notes | |-------------------|-----------------------------|--------------------------------| | **SimilarWeb** | 100M+ websites, 4M+ apps | Strongest breadth; $10K+/yr | | **Sensor Tower** | Mobile apps (acquired data.ai) | Consolidated mobile market | | **Apptopia** | 3,500+ public tickers | 4-6 week earnings lead signal | Free alternatives: very limited (app store scraping, Cloudflare Radar for aggregate trends). ### 4. Credit Card / Transaction Data The #1 ranked alt-data category for alpha, but zero free alternatives. | Provider | Panel | Lag | |-------------------------|--------------------|--------| | **Bloomberg Second Measure** | 20M+ consumers | 3-day | | **Earnest Research** | Undisclosed | ~3 day | | **Facteus** | 185M+ cards | 2-day | | **YipitData** | Varies | Daily | Closest free proxy: FRED consumer spending (aggregate only, monthly). ### 5. Satellite / Geospatial Unique, uncorrelated signals — but requires ML expertise for DIY. | Provider | Focus | |---------------------|-------------------------------------------------| | **Orbital Insight** | Oil storage (25K tanks), retail car counts, ports | | **SpaceKnow** | Global trade index from port imagery | | **Planet Labs** | Daily global imagery (200+ satellites) | | **RS Metrics** | Metal storage, parking lots, solar panels | Free imagery: Sentinel-2 (10m, 5-day revisit), Landsat (30m), Google Earth Engine. Feasible to build parking lot car counters with Sentinel-2 + YOLO but resolution is limiting. ### 6. Supply Chain / Shipping 80%+ of international trade moves by sea — AIS data is powerful macro signal. | Provider | Focus | |----------------------|------------------------------------| | **FreightWaves SONAR** | Trucking/rail/air/ocean; $125B in invoices tracked | | **MarineTraffic (Kpler)** | 13K+ AIS receivers globally | | **Windward** | Maritime AI risk + compliance | Free: AISHub (community AIS data), OECD maritime dashboard, UN Comtrade, FRED freight indices. ### 7. Job Posting Signals Hiring velocity is a leading indicator. Fed policy increasingly influenced by alt jobs data. | Provider | Coverage | |-------------------|-----------------------------------------| | **Revelio Labs** | 4.1B+ postings, 6.6M companies | | **LinkUp** | Direct from 67K+ employer websites, 195 countries | | **Indeed Hiring Lab** | Free aggregate reports (no ticker-level) | Free: BLS JOLTS (monthly aggregate), WARN Act notices (state-by-state scraping), CommonCrawl job pages. ### 8. Government / Regulatory (SEC, BLS, EIA, FRED) Free, authoritative, but often lagging. NLP on filings extracts sentiment shifts. | Source | Type | Access | |---------------------|-----------------------|---------| | **SEC EDGAR** | All US public filings | Free | | **edgartools** | AI-native EDGAR Python library | Free | | **FRED** | 800K+ economic time series | Free API | | **BLS** | Employment, CPI, PPI, JOLTS | Free | | **EIA** | Energy production/pricing | Free | | **AlphaSense** | AI search across filings | Enterprise | ### 9. Patent / IP Signals Filing spikes signal emerging tech bets 12-18mo before product launches. Free via PatentsView API (USPTO), Google Patents, Lens.org, WIPO. Commercial: Patsnap, Lighthouse IP. ### 10. Options / Dark Pool Reveals institutional positioning before it appears in price. | Provider | Cost | Notes | |---------------------|-----------|-------------------------------------------| | **Unusual Whales** | $30/mo | Options flow + dark pool + Congress trades | | **FlowAlgo** | ~$100/mo | Algorithmic dark pool filtering | | **FINRA ATS data** | Free | Weekly dark pool volumes (2-4 week delay) | ### 11. Insider Trading SEC Form 4 filings — cluster buying is a well-documented bullish signal. All free: OpenInsider, SECForm4.com, edgartools for programmatic access. One of the most accessible alt-data categories. ### 12. ESG Data Low inter-provider agreement is the elephant in the room. RepRisk (NLP-based) is theoretically replicable with open-source tools. ### 13. Earnings Call NLP **Highest-ROI DIY project.** Pipeline: scrape transcript → chunk → FinBERT → compute sentiment delta vs. previous quarter. 45-50% of companies that beat EPS still trade lower when tone is negative. ### 14. Foot Traffic / Mobility Placer.ai, Unacast, Foursquare. All enterprise-priced ($50K+/yr). Free alternatives are mostly discontinued (Apple/Google mobility reports). Google Popular Times scrapable but gives relative busyness only. --- ## Open Source Platforms | Platform | Stars | Description | |-----------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------| | **OpenBB** | 35K+ | Free open-source financial data platform; modular, API-first | | **awesome-quant** | 18K+ | Curated list of quant finance libraries | | **Quiver Quantitative** | — | Reddit sentiment, Congress trades, insider activity | | **edgartools** | — | AI-native EDGAR library; XBRL + 17 form types | | **FinBERT** (ProsusAI) | — | Financial sentiment BERT on HuggingFace | --- ## Key Academic References | Paper | Signal | Finding | |-------------------------------------------|----------------|------------------------------------------------| | Preis et al. (2013), Nature | Google Trends | GT strategy outperformed market by 310% over 7yr | | Bijl et al. (2016), ScienceDirect | Google search | Search volume predicts individual stock returns | | PeerJ (2023) | StockTwits+FinBERT | FinBERT+SVM ensemble predicts stock movement | | J.P. Morgan (2024) | All alt-data | Hedge funds using alt-data see 3% higher annual returns | | Financial Innovation (Springer 2024) | All alt-data | Comprehensive review of alt-data in finance | --- ## Market Context Global alternative data market: $11-14B (2025), projected >$19B by 2030. 86% of investment managers plan to increase alt-data usage. 98% agree traditional data is too slow. Convergence of cheaper compute + better NLP (FinBERT, LLMs) + data accessibility makes this increasingly viable for smaller teams. --- ## Relevance to gtracker The current trend tracker (Google Trends → composite indices) is a good foundation. Natural expansions: 1. **Immediate** (free, same architecture): SEC insider buying, WARN Act notices, BLS JOLTS, FRED macro indicators 2. **High-value add** (needs FinBERT): Earnings call sentiment, SEC filing risk factor NLP, Reddit/StockTwits sentiment 3. **Medium-term** ($30-100/mo): Unusual Whales options flow, PatentsView filings 4. **Aspirational**: Satellite imagery, credit card data, foot traffic (require enterprise budgets or partnerships) The config.yaml + index computation pattern in `projects/trends/` generalizes well to all of these — most are time-series data that can form category/composite indices with the same infrastructure.